Mailing Lists

-----Original Message-----
From: Fitzsimonds, James, CIV, NAVWARCOL 
Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 1:02 PM
To: 
Subject: RE: MILITARY RAMIFICATION OF CHINA'S "ONE-CHILD" POLICY

On the other hand:

 --Over the past 15 years China has invested heavily in military power
projection systems that mark a major shift from high manpower peoples'
war to low manpower missile war.  Even in high intensity combat, they
seem to be opting for high firepower/low casualty operations (just like
the US).  

--Their overall military is still large, but absent a major ground
invasion of China, 90+% of those troops would probably never see combat
(and who's going to invade China?).  

--The male-female imbalance will result in a large pool of
testosterone-charged young men with no prospects for finding a bride or
settling down to raise a family.  Military service might be a very
attractive career choice for them.

--China can likely man all of its high end systems (i.e. those it would
use against outside nations) with volunteers rather than conscripts.
China could set pay and benefits for military volunteers at levels
necessary to buy acquiescence from their parents. It could relax the
one-child policy for parents of military personnel or parents of combat
casualties.

What percentage of US troops are single children or only sons?



-----Original Message-----
From: Lewis, James P., CTR, NAVWARCOL
Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 11:59 AM
To: 
Subject: MILITARY RAMIFICATION OF CHINA'S "ONE-CHILD" POLICY

I was reading through this week's edition (Nov. 30, 2009) of Newsweek
magazine, and noticed a short article entitled, "China Wants the Spoils,
Not the War" (page 10).

Pointing out that "war requires both blood and treasure", the article
mentions China's huge investments around the world - especially in raw
materials and energy - and most recently a $3 billion deal by China
Metallurgical to develop the world's largest untapped copper reserves in
Afghanistan ... but at the same time the article points out China's
desire to avoid any risk of spilling Chinese blood.

What caught my attention was the mention of Beijing's desire to avoid
"troop casualties which could inflame antiwar sentiment at home -
ESPECIALLY SINCE A THIRD OF ITS SOLDIERS ARE SINGLE CHILDREN, (my caps -
Jim) because of family planning controls".

While exemptions to the one-child policy are available - especially for
couples who have suffered the loss of their one child - many problems
have arisen due to the one-child policy, including too many males and
not enough females (due to selective abortion), and an increasing
elderly population which cannot rely on a decreasing younger generation
to care for them later in life - a HUGE tradition which is quickly being
extinguished.  

But back to the military issue:  what political/military leader(s) in
China could make strategic- and operational-level military decisions
WITHOUT considering the fact that 1/3 of the troops are single
children...  Quite a change from our Korean War view of the People's
Liberation Army having an
(almost) limitless number of troops ready to take the next hill....

Jim