Mailing Lists

OK, I'll take a stab at making some observations that might add value.
Let's look from the perspective a friend of mine uses when considering
energy technologies:  energy density.  It also happens to be a dimension of
performance that the Secretary mentioned in his speech as a motivating force
for the current change effort, by drawing the history of the shift from wind
to coal to oil.

Wind is less dense (and less controllable) as an energy source than coal and
coal less dense than oil.  Only three data points, but what is more dense
energy-wise than oil (and other renewable fuels)?  Maybe we ought to look
for a set of solutions in that direction.  Carrying denser sources of energy
can address an issue that Secretary Mabus addressed, that is, the cost of
getting fuel to the vehicles and platforms that need it.  More density in
energy means fewer refueling stops.  That means fewer logistics resources
needed to transport fuel.  So what does the FBCF (fully burdened cost of
fuel) look like for various energy sources?

>From a strategic perspective, we traded "free" wind for coaling stations
that required a higher level of strategic investment both financially,
diplomatically and militarily.  We also (in the early days) traded the
simple technology of sail for a more complex and less reliable (initially)
technology of coal powered steam.  And as the Secretary noted, when we
shifted from coal to oil, we traded dependency on coaling stations for more
independent operations--perhaps more strategic flexibility.  And, as the
Secretary noted, much of this strategic flexibility has disappeared.  Maybe
we should look at this dimension as well: how much strategic flexibility
does the energy source we use for our ships and aircraft provide?
 
We might also consider that, in the current flurry of activity over
alternative energy sources (which bears some resemblance to the last energy
bubble, which occurred in 1979-1980), reality eventually comes home to
roost.  Money follows performance, even in the DoD.  Operational performance
in the field is what really matters at the end of the day, and at the level
of "industrial use", many alternative energy sources simply cannot pass
muster in demanding operational contexts.
  
There are also factual issues in the Secretary's speech, the least
contentious of them is this:  "Over time, the price [of oil] keeps going
up."  This statement obscures a very complex picture in which oil prices
vary dramatically over time, going both UP and DOWN.  A glance at a chart of
historical crude oil prices shows that volatility might be a bigger concern
than raw price, and that volatility really started to creep into the system
starting about 1973
(http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_
Prices_Chart.htm). I have not audited or verified the data source at the
link, so there may be errors, but the overall picture is consistent with
data presented in a nice report on venture capital and the energy sector by
the PNNL
(http://www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-17953.
pdf). This report also provides an indirect look at the one indicator of an
"energy bubble".

I think the Secretary has embarked on an important initiative.

John


John Q. Dickmann, Ph.D.
President
PlatAris Analytics, LLC
401 225 3511
johndickmann at cox.net




-----Original Message-----
From: nwc_onlinediscussion-bounces at osiris.usnwc.edu
[mailto:nwc_onlinediscussion-bounces at osiris.usnwc.edu] On Behalf Of
Garofano, John F., CIV, NAVWARCOL
Sent: Thursday, November 19, 2009 4:58 PM
To: nwc_onlinediscussion at osiris.usnwc.edu
Subject: [NWC_OnlineDiscussion] SECNAV Navy Energy Forum

Attached is the October 14 Navy Energy Forum or "Green Policy Speech" by
Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus.  Secretary Mabus lays out a number of
significant energy policy goals for the Navy and Marine Corps, including a
Green Strike Group composed of nuclear and biofuel vessels, cutting
petroleum use by 50% by 2015, and producing half our total energy
consumption for ships, aircraft, tanks, vehicles and shore installations
from alternative energy sources by 2020.

How do we accomplish this in the current fiscal environment?

Dr. John F Garofano
Dean of Academic Affairs
U.S. Naval War College